[MUD-Dev] Evolutionary Design

Jeff Cole jeff.cole at mindspring.com
Wed Jun 19 07:42:07 New Zealand Standard Time 2002

From: Jessica Mulligan
> At 12:54 AM 6/18/2002 -0700, Jeff Cole wrote:

>> I very dubiously consider Jessica's assertion (see: most recent
>> BTH http://www.skotos.net/articles/bth.html) that games are not
>> cannibalizing each other, yet.  While perhaps semantically true,
>> it is not substantively true-- the statement implies growth that
>> simply isn't there.

> Actually, it is both substantively and semantically true, with the
> addition of one word: We aren't cannabalizing *active* users.

With due respect, I would not be comfortable making that distinction
in a pitch to VC.  My experience is strictly anecdotal from the
consumer side, but my "gut" tells me that the games are indeed
cannibalizing the potential subscriber base.  Multiple accounts
(inter- and intragame) are very common.  That is to say, that while
there may be growth, it is not accurately represented (indeed, it is
quite overstated) by looking at gross revenue (i.e. total discrete
subscribers << total subscriptions).

I would not be surprised at all to find that the growth rate for
multiple accounts (inter- and intragame) is greater than that for
new players.

Yes. Affcty,
Jeff Cole

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